At the start of 2025, US higher education celebrated a record milestone — more than 1.29 million international students were enrolled as of September 2024, according to updated data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). This marked a 6.5% year-over-year increase, reflecting renewed global interest in studying in the United States.
Yet that momentum quickly met resistance. As Shorelight previously noted, President Trump’s administration entered its second term with a renewed focus on reshaping higher education and immigration, moving rapidly through executive actions and regulatory changes.
As we approach Spring 2026, it is worth reflecting on how these first 10 months of the Trump administration have altered the policy landscape and what lies ahead.
Executive Orders and Immediate Policy Shifts
Beginning in January 2025, the administration issued more than a dozen executive orders with potential implications for international students. Among those, three stood out for their immediate and far-reaching effects:
Protecting the United States from Foreign Threats
Expanded visa screening and new vetting protocols
Updates to the Foreign Affairs Manual that altered embassy guidance
A broad review of student and exchange visitor visa categories
Protecting the American People Against Invasion
Focus on countries deemed “uncooperative” in repatriation
Introduction of visa bonds and other deterrent measures
Measures to Combat Anti-Semitism on Campus
Threats of institutional sanctions
Enhanced social media reviews during student screening
Reported visa revocations and SEVIS terminations tied to online activity
By late spring, the administration expanded these measures significantly.
On May 27, the U.S. Department of State temporarily paused new student and exchange visa interviews to introduce social media vetting protocols.
On May 28, Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled a plan to intensify scrutiny of Chinese students in “strategic fields,” suggesting possible visa revocations based on security concerns.
By June 4, new travel restrictions took effect for nationals from 19 countries, with partial suspensions of F, M, and J visa categories.
Additional guidance instructed consular officers to review public social media content for indicators of “hostility toward US values or institutions.”
These actions contributed to a wave of anxiety and confusion across global student markets. Many international students expressed uncertainty about whether the United States remained a welcoming and stable study destination. Universities, meanwhile, focused on clarifying the new rules and reassuring students that they remained committed to safety, compliance, and international engagement.
Enrollment and Recruitment Impacts
By mid-2025, early data began to show measurable enrollment impacts:
Between January and May 2025, US consulates issued roughly 95,000 F-1 visas, marking the lowest issuance total in three years (Shorelight analysis).
SEVIS data indicated that while 2024 saw healthy growth, 2025 forecasts had already shifted downward — with some models projecting a potential 11% decline in active student records compared to the previous year.
A report from NAFSA: Association of International Educators estimated that US higher education, as a sector,
could lose up to 150,000 international students in Fall 2025, representing a potential $7 billion economic impact and risk to more than 60,000 jobs nationwide.
More On The Horizon - Key Regulatory Changes in Motion
Duration of Status (D/S)
In August 2025, DHS proposed reintroducing fixed terms for F and J visa holders, limiting stays to the duration of their academic program with a maximum of four years. This marks a revival of a policy first proposed in the administration’s earlier term. If finalized, this change could take effect as soon as December 2025, signaling tighter oversight of student compliance.
Optional Practical Training (OPT)
The OPT program — a critical post-graduation work opportunity for international students — remains under review. The administration has expressed concern over its structure and oversight, and DHS is expected to release a proposed rule soon. As it stands, OPT allows for up to 12 months of work authorization, with STEM graduates eligible for an additional 24 months. Comparable post-study programs in Canada, the UK, Australia, and China underscore the global importance of work-integrated learning for international competitiveness.
H-1B Visa Changes
Two developments dominated 2025:
A September 21 proclamation introduced a $100,000 fee for certain new H-1B visa recipients. The policy was quickly clarified to exclude most current holders and student visa transitions, but the initial announcement sparked widespread concern.
A U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) proposal to reform the H-1B lottery would give preference based on salary level, weighting selections toward higher wage tiers — a shift that could disadvantage recent international graduates.
New reporting and research seeks to answer the questions: How many international students will be deterred or blocked from entering the US workforce by these changes? And how will resulting losses affect the US STEM workforce and the resulting productivity of the American economy?
The effects extend far beyond the financial losses to universities and their surrounding communities. The new research suggests that losing access to top global talent could significantly reduce US GDP, underscoring the critical role international students play in driving innovation, workforce development, and economic growth.
The Road Ahead
While the majority of the administration’s proposed policy changes are aimed at safeguarding national security — a goal we at Shorelight fully support — we have concerns about the focus of some of these proposals.
Over the past 20+ years, the US has developed robust systems and procedures that give universities and relevant agencies the tools needed to track and support international students. Policies such as the proposed Duration of Status changes or the potential elimination of Optional Practical Training (OPT) may not be the most effective means of achieving security objectives. We encourage the administration to collaborate with higher education institutions to ensure that new policies are practical, targeted, and truly enhance safety for Americans.
As 2025 draws to a close, the outlook for US international education remains uncertain. While the United States continues to lead globally in academic quality and innovation, new restrictions and heightened scrutiny risk discouraging students from key markets. Universities are responding by improving communication, strengthening compliance frameworks, and emphasizing the long-term benefits of a US education.
The first 10 months of the administration’s second term make one thing clear: attracting international students is more competitive than ever. Countries around the world recognize that international students contribute not only tuition revenue, but also critical skills and perspectives that drive innovation and economic growth. Like the US, many nations are targeting talent in science, technology, and other high-demand fields. The winners in this global race will be those who best combine opportunity with openness. For the United States, the challenge in the year ahead will be balancing security concerns with maintaining its position as a welcoming destination for top global talent.
